North-western Europe is grappling with worsening drought conditions following an exceptionally dry spring, as new data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) reveals that May 2025 was the second warmest May on record globally.
According to the Copernicus report, last month’s global average surface air temperature reached 15.79°C, which is 0.53°C above the 1991–2020 average for May, and 1.4°C above the estimated pre-industrial level (1850–1900). While this marks a slight dip below the critical 1.5°C threshold after 21 of the past 22 months exceeded it, experts warn this is a temporary reprieve.
“May 2025 breaks an unprecedentedly long sequence of months over 1.5°C above pre-industrial,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of C3S at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). “Whilst this may offer a brief respite for the planet, we do expect the 1.5°C threshold to be exceeded again in the near future due to the continued warming of the climate system.”
The warming trend is having immediate consequences on the ground. Farmers across Europe, including the UK, are reporting early signs of crop failures, while water shortages loom unless significant rainfall arrives during the summer months.
Regions in northern and central Europe, as well as parts of Russia, Ukraine, and Türkiye, were significantly drier than average in May. North-western Europe, in particular, saw the lowest levels of precipitation and soil moisture since at least 1979. The prolonged dry spell is compounding stress on agriculture, ecosystems, and water infrastructure.
The dry conditions weren’t limited to Europe. May 2025 also brought below-average rainfall to North America, the Horn of Africa, central Asia, southern Australia, and vast areas of southern Africa and South America.
In parallel, sea surface temperatures in the north-eastern Atlantic reached record highs, adding to concerns about marine ecosystems, weather pattern disruptions, and feedback loops that could accelerate warming.
The 1.5°C target, set by the 2015 Paris Agreement, is measured over multi-decade averages. While a single year or month above this threshold doesn’t mean the goal is officially missed, scientists say the frequent overshooting highlights the worsening climate crisis.
Every year in the past decade has been among the ten warmest ever recorded, with 2025 now on track to continue that trend. Despite momentary fluctuations, climate systems are warming steadily, and the impacts—from droughts to heatwaves and extreme weather events—are becoming more pronounced and widespread.
As the summer begins, much of Europe watches the sky, hoping for rain. But with temperatures rising and moisture vanishing, the continent may be heading toward another climate-fueled disaster.